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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 72 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
1139 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013 


Aviation... 
MVFR/IFR conditions are expected overnight and Sunday morning as 
low clouds invade the i35 corridor. Clouds are anticipated to 
break and ceilings to lift by middle morning Sunday. VFR conditions 
should return around 17z. Southerly winds to prevail for the 
forecast period at about 10 to 17 knots with gusts up to 25 knots 
as surface pressure gradient remains tight. Across kdrt...VFR 
conditions will prevail through the cycle. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 845 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013/ 


Update... 
the earlier extensive cloud cover inhibited convective development 
over the serranias del burro range for the most part. Recently two 
showers developed...but they have all but dissipated. Will remove 
isolated pop mention out west. Have re-established trends to the 
sensible weather grids for the remainder of tonight into Sunday. 
Otherwise...remainder of south central Texas forecast is on track. 
18z model runs still show the possibility of isolated showers and 
thunderstorms across western areas Sunday and Monday evenings due 
to proximity to the dryline and higher terrain as well as isolated 
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday as a 
surface boundary and upper level trough move across the area. The 
middle week activity may include some stronger storms and locally 
heavier rainfall. 


Previous discussion... /issued 615 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013/ 


Aviation... 
an upper trough system to move across the Rocky Mountains tonight 
and into the High Plains on Sunday. Southwesterly flow aloft will 
continue to bring middle to upper level clouds across the region 
through Sunday. At the surface...high pressure ridge across the 
Gulf of Mexico will keep a southerly flow over south central Texas 
for the entire forecast cycle with winds speeds of 10 to 20 knots 
and gusting up to 25 knots...through early this evening and once 
again Sunday afternoon. MVFR conditions are expected after 
midnight with IFR conditions possible at or about 10z through 14z 
Sunday along the i35 terminals. VFR conditions are expected to return 
by 17z Sunday. Kdrt will remain VFR through the forecast period. 


Previous discussion... /issued 327 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013/ 


Short term (tonight through Sunday night)... 
weak elevated convection moving northeastward across S central Texas this 
afternoon...with the high cloudiness from the Pacific keeping 
temperatures down 5-10 degrees over this time Friday. Broad upper 
trough over the western Continental U.S. For the next several days will keep 
a southwesterly flow aloft across S Texas. Series of disturbances in the southwesterly 
flow will track across west/SW Texas across central/North Texas...south 
Texas will remain on the southern edge of more organized convection. 
Therefore only expect isolated storms each late afternoon and 
evening with heating over the higher terrain of The Hill Country 
and along the dry line over the Edwards Plateau. Otherwise continued 
unseasonably warm Sunday...although the Pacific moisture/clouds 
should help keep temperatures shy of record highs. 


Long term (monday through saturday)... 
little change for Monday from Sunday. By Tuesday chances for 
convection increase due to an upper trough dropping into West Texas 
and bringing a cold front into central Texas Tuesday afternoon and 
evening. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) indicate some spotty heavier quantitative precipitation forecast 
amounts with the system Tuesday night/early Wednesday as middle level 
flow parallels the stalling frontal boundary. However low level 
moisture is fairly shallow so expecting average quantitative precipitation forecast amounts to be 
fairly meager at a quarter inch or less. A few lingering 
showers/storms across the central/eastern County Warning Area Wednesday with the 
lingering boundary in the area. Have continued the drying trend 
for Thursday-Fri-Sat of next week as upper ridge builds in from the 
west and probability of a few airmass daytime storms will be too 
low to mention. Have trended with higher guidance temperatures 
for late next week into the weekend given the ridging aloft. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 73 95 73 94 72 / - - - 10 10 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 71 94 71 93 71 / - - - 10 10 
New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 95 71 94 71 / - - - 10 10 
Burnet Muni Airport 71 92 71 92 69 / - 10 10 10 10 
del Rio International Airport 75 102 75 102 75 / - 10 10 10 10 
Georgetown Muni Airport 71 91 71 91 69 / - - - 10 10 
Hondo Muni Airport 71 97 71 97 72 / - - - 10 10 
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 94 72 93 72 / - - - 10 10 
La Grange - Fayette regional 73 93 75 92 75 / - - - 10 10 
San Antonio International Airport 72 95 72 94 72 / - - - 10 10 
Stinson Muni Airport 72 95 72 93 73 / - - - 10 10 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Mesoscale/aviation...17 
synoptic/grids...04