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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 72 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Thursday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
636 am CDT Monday may 20 2013 


Update... 
see aviation for 12z taf discussion. 


&& 


Aviation... 
broken deck of IFR/MVFR ceilings should impact the I-35 terminals and 
most of south central Texas through at least 16z while drt and areas 
along the Rio Grande remain VFR through the period. Tafs account 
for some prolonged ceilings over yesterday as middle level winds turn 
more southerly and allow for a deeper moist layer. The dry-line 
could become active with convection...but is forecast by hi-res 
models to trigger storms mainly east of drt and well to the west of 
I-35. Low clouds are expected to return late tonight with a few 
hours of IFR ceilings toward daybreak. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 313 am CDT Monday may 20 2013/ 


Short term (today through tuesday)... 
subsident westerlies aloft will keep Gulf moisture capped today. Low 
clouds will begin lifting by late morning with diurnal heating becoming 
partly to mostly sunny area-wide. Drier air over western sections 
will result in temperatures well above normal with readings again 
near the century mark. The continued Gulf moisture advection pattern 
will moderate temperatures over The Hill Country as well as over 
central and eastern sections where lower 90s will prevail. The 
aforementioned upper level cap will keep convection from forming but 
further north over west central Texas...lowered heights from slight 
cooling aloft and a dry line focus over west central Texas may be 
enough to spur development with the upper winds bringing potential 
storms into The Hill Country by late afternoon. Late afternoon 
prognostic soundings in The Hill Country show convective available potential energy above 3000 j/kg 
with very little cap. Subsequently we will mention a low chance of 
severe storms for late afternoon into early this evening over 
portions of The Hill Country. The approaching upper trough over New 
Mexico will enhance low level upslope flow over the Mexican mountains 
tonight which may aid in development of late evening to early 
morning thunderstorms. On Tuesday...the upper trough will shift east 
across North Texas sliding a cold front into our northwest County Warning Area late 
in the day. Very unstable air will be in place ahead of the front 
(prog soundings indicated 4000 j/kg. Capes) so can certainly see 
development of thunderstorms along the front and moving east across 
The Hill Country by late in the day. Some of these storms could be 
severe with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds. 


Long term (tuesday night through sunday)... 
continued upper level disturbances and cooling aloft will continue 
aiding thunderstorm development tomorrow night with some of the 
storms becoming severe. Storms will exit to the east Wednesday 
morning as disturbances push east. Upper ridging will begin 
building over the area by late in the day. Highs Wednesday ranging 
from near 90 over The Hill Country and eastern portions to the middle 
to upper 90s over south central and western sections. As ridging 
dries the air-mass...with lighter winds...slightly cooler Wednesday 
night with lows in the upper 60s Hill Country...near 70 along the 
I-35 corridor. The upper ridge will dominate much of the south 
central United States Thursday through Saturday with continued 
southeast winds and Gulf moisture for our region. Late night and 
morning low clouds becoming partly cloudy afternoons will be the 
pattern. Lows in the middle to upper 60s Hill Country...upper 60s to 
near 70 I-35 corridor to low 70s elsewhere Thursday through 
Saturday. Highs Thursday through Saturday will be in the upper 80s 
to near 90 Hill Country...low 90s I-35 corridor and middle to upper 
90s elsewhere. There may be a few sea breeze type showers which 
may move north into our eastern sections with a slight increase in 
southerly flow...but will now go with silent 10 percent probability of precipitation due 
to uncertainty of enough coastal low level convergence. GFS model 
wants to continue building the ridge over northern Mexico across 
Texas next Sunday with a continued warm...dry weather pattern. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 93 72 93 72 92 / - - 20 40 - 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 92 71 91 71 91 / - - 20 40 - 
New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 71 93 71 92 / - - 20 40 10 
Burnet Muni Airport 91 69 90 68 90 / 20 20 20 40 - 
del Rio International Airport 100 74 99 74 98 / - 20 10 20 - 
Georgetown Muni Airport 90 70 89 70 89 / - 10 20 40 - 
Hondo Muni Airport 97 72 96 71 95 / - 10 10 30 - 
San Marcos Muni Airport 91 72 90 72 90 / - - 20 40 - 
La Grange - Fayette regional 91 75 91 75 90 / - 10 20 30 20 
San Antonio International Airport 93 73 93 72 92 / - - 20 40 10 
Stinson Muni Airport 93 73 93 72 91 / - - 10 30 10 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Mesoscale/aviation...02 
synoptic/grids...18