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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 11:34 PM CDT on May 24, 2013

  Isolated light rain showers will develop across The Hill Country and adjacent areas through the overnight hours. These showers will generally develop north of Interstate 35 and move northward at 25 mph. Due to the isolated nature of the showers...measurable rainfall will be spotty...with most areas not receiving additional rainfall. Locations which do have rain will average a few hundredths of an inch.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of Rain

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 72 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
1148 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 


Aviation... 
MVFR ceilings below 2 kft have begun to develop across eastern 
portions of the region. The stratus deck will spread west to kdrt 
overnight. Moist low levels and wet soils will help ceiling bases 
lower overnight with IFR ceilings anticipated at kaus/ksat/kssf in the 
near-daybreak hours. Patchy fog will also be possible. Brief -shra 
is possible overnight at kaus/ksat/kssf...but no impacts are 
expected. Conditions will improve during the middle-morning hours 
with a return to VFR anticipated around 18z. Another round of 
convection is possible on Saturday as a weak upper level impulse 
moves across the region. For now have highlighted this scenario 
with prob30 groups during peak heating hours due to 
timing/location uncertainties. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 919 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013/ 


Discussion... 
continued trends with ongoing forecasts...with some adjustments 
to the short term mesoscale scale trends since the late afternoon and 
for weather patterns for Saturday...based on 18z forecast data... 
some of the 00z forecast solutions and the 00z forecast maps. 
The 500 hpa low that was near del Rio early this morning has 
moved to central Texas this evening and is forecast to drift 
slowly to the northeast through Saturday evening...leaving 
a weakness in the height field across south central Texas 
on Saturday. This will allow showers and thunderstorms to 
redevelop again as early as the early morning hours on 
Saturday or during the daytime on Saturday and continue 
through Saturday evening. 


Forecast solutions continue to show weak ridging developing 
over south central Texas from the west and southwest on Sunday. 
This will allow more stable conditions to develop from the 
west...with partly cloudy skies expected for most of the day on 
Sunday and warmer afternoon highs. 


For Monday and Tuesday of next week...partly cloudy and warm 
conditions are still expected. Another 500 hpa trough will move 
toward the area Wednesday of next week...and could bring a chance 
of showers again over the west part of south central Texas on 
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening...and then over 
south central Texas on Thursday of next week. 


Climate... 
locally heavy rains today brought some relief from the dry conditions 
across the area since October 2012. Although the rainfall amounts 
so far today were not daily records for may 24th...they are listed 
below compared to the daily record for may 24th. 


Location may 24...2013 may 24th daily 
rain as of 9 PM record rainfall 


Austin Mabry 3.30 4.00 may 24...1908 
Austin Bergstrom 3.13 3.88 may 24...1981 
del Rio 0.80 7.12 may 24...2010 
San Antonio 2.33 2.76 may 24...1908 


Previous discussion... /issued 655 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013/ 


Aviation... 
the axis of convection will continue to slowly shift 
northeastward...with convective activity decreasing across south 
central Texas this evening. A window of VFR conditions is expected 
trough the next few hours...with MVFR stratus returning to the 
I-35 corridor taf sites by 04-05z and spreading west to kdrt 
overnight. Ample low level moisture and wet grounds from recent 
rainfall suggest the potential for IFR ceilings as well as patchy 
fog...especially at kaus...in the near-daybreak hours. Ceilings will 
lift to VFR during the late morning/early afternoon hours. Another 
round of convective activity is possible Saturday as an upper 
level weakness moves across the area...but coverage is questionable 
and confidence is only fair...so have not mentioned additional 
convection at this time. Surface winds will be southeasterly near 10 kts through 
the overnight hours increasing to 10 to 15 kts at I-35 taf sites 
and 15 to 20 kts at kdrt Saturday afternoon. 


Previous discussion... /issued 242 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013/ 


Short term (tonight through Saturday night)... 
this afternoon the mesoscale convective vortex was centered over Real County drifting northward. 
An associated line of showers and thunderstorms extended from Burnet 
southward to New Braunfels and Campbellton. The line was moving slowly 
east while the individual cells were moving northward. This is leading 
to cell training resulting in localized flooding. The threat for 
locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding associated with the line 
of convection will continue through the rest of the afternoon as heating 
interacts with precipitable waters  of 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Strong outflow winds of 
30 to 40 miles per hour were also occurring in advance of the line. The slow 
moving line will continue to move eastward for the remainder of 
this afternoon. The areal coverage of convection will diminish 
overnight with the loss of daytime heating. Another round of 
showers and thunderstorms is possible on Saturday as another upper 
level impulse moves across south central Texas. Highs on Saturday 
will be close to seasonal normals. 


Long term (sunday through friday)... 
the upper level ridge is expected to strengthen across south central 
Texas on Sunday bringing an end to our rain chances. The upper level 
ridge axis will shift eastward Tuesday and Wednesday with the approach 
of a western U.S. Upper level trough. Rain chances will be on the 
increase Wednesday and Thursday as the upper level trough moves eastward 
across the Central Plains. Temperatures Sunday through Monday will 
be at or slightly above normal. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 68 90 72 93 72 / 30 40 20 - - 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 67 90 70 91 71 / 30 40 20 - - 
New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 90 71 93 72 / 30 30 20 - - 
Burnet Muni Airport 66 87 69 90 70 / 30 30 20 - - 
del Rio International Airport 70 91 74 94 74 / 30 20 20 - - 
Georgetown Muni Airport 69 87 70 90 71 / 30 40 20 - - 
Hondo Muni Airport 70 92 72 93 72 / 30 30 20 - - 
San Marcos Muni Airport 68 90 71 92 72 / 30 40 20 - - 
La Grange - Fayette regional 71 88 72 91 72 / 30 40 20 10 - 
San Antonio International Airport 70 90 73 92 73 / 30 30 20 - - 
Stinson Muni Airport 69 90 72 92 73 / 30 30 20 - - 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Mesoscale/aviation...25 
synoptic/grids...08