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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
1247 PM CDT sun may 19 2013 


Aviation... 
we are in a stagnant weather pattern with deep low level flow from 
the southeast and upper level westerlies. This will continue for 
the next 24 hours with VFR conditions through the afternoon and 
evening at all terminals. Winds will be from the southeast at 
around 15 kts with gusts up to 25. MVFR ceilings will return to aus... 
Sat...and ssf tonight around 06z. VFR will return late morning 
Monday. Drt will be VFR through the entire period. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 423 am CDT sun may 19 2013/ 


Short term (today through monday)... 
above normal heat will continue today through Monday. The leading 
shortwave as part of a troughing pattern over the western half of the 
US has trended deeper and enhanced the middle-level dry slot over West 
Texas. This trend does not appear to show much impact on the weather 
over south central Texas. However...a weak shortwave passing over 
the northern Mexico toward the Rio Grande would go unnoticed if 
not for an isolated batch of storms that formed over the higher 
terrain. The feature appears weak enough to leave unaccounted for 
in the forecast at this time...but will monitor for a possible 
update to a slight chance of rain for this morning over western 
counties. 


Model forecast temperatures in the dry layer to the west are 
consistent with those of Saturday...so will continue with more 
triple digits near the Rio Grande and near persistence highs in 
the low-middle 90s for the I-35 corridor. With low level moisture 
being reduced in part from the dry slot...probability of precipitation are left as silent 
10s for this evening. Aloft...the tap to the Pacific tropics is 
only temporarily broken...and some middle to high level moisture 
should become established over the dry-line in time for isolated 
convection to be possible again for Monday afternoon and evening. 
Meanwhile...daytime temperatures should continue to moderate 
slowly in the zonal pattern aloft. 


Long term (monday night through saturday)... 
Monday night convection is left as an evening event for now...but 
the approach of the upper trough into northwest Texas could present some 
added lift to extend the chance of rain into The Hill Country and 
connect with the higher chance of rain for Tuesday into Tuesday 
night. The dry slot could become a factor...given the shallow base 
of the upper trough...so the probability of precipitation are mostly low chance to reflect 
continued poor confidence. This forecast period shows the only 
pattern that models show a good chance of organized convection and 
a possible weak front to provide a focus. Better rain chances and 
dynamics aloft favor better rain chances over East Texas and tapering 
off to slight chance probability of precipitation over our western counties. With not a 
great signal on diurnal timing of this system...we would only 
suggest that these storms could approach severe levels and could 
produce isolated heavy downpours of 1 to 2 inches. Run-to-run 
model trends have not been favorable for a good rain event. The 
extended forecast for Wednesday into next weekend is also 
pessimistic in terms of rain chance. Models continue to trend 
toward a building upper ridge over Texas with decreasing amounts of 
moisture over Texas...and more above normal temperatures. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 73 93 74 93 71 / 10 10 10 20 30 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 72 91 72 91 69 / 10 10 10 20 30 
New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 93 72 93 70 / 10 10 10 20 30 
Burnet Muni Airport 71 91 70 90 68 / 10 10 10 20 40 
del Rio International Airport 73 101 74 99 73 / 10 20 20 10 30 
Georgetown Muni Airport 71 90 70 90 69 / 10 10 10 20 40 
Hondo Muni Airport 72 97 72 96 70 / 10 10 10 20 40 
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 90 73 91 71 / 10 10 10 20 30 
La Grange - Fayette regional 73 91 76 92 74 / 10 - - 20 20 
San Antonio International Airport 74 93 74 94 71 / 10 10 10 20 30 
Stinson Muni Airport 73 94 74 93 71 / 10 10 10 20 30 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Mesoscale/aviation...05 
synoptic/grids...01 
public service/data collection...31