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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 10:31 am CDT on May 24, 2013

  Through 1 PM CDT...a complex of numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east at 20 mph across The Hill Country...Rio Grande plains...and into the counties of the I-35 corridor. Ahead of this slow moving complex...scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and move north at 25 mph across areas along and east of the I-35 corridor. Locally heavy downpours of 1 to 3 inches... wind gusts to 40 mph...and frequent lightning can be expected with the stronger storms. Heaviest rainfall through 1 PM can be expected along and south of a line from Leakey to Canyon Lake...extending south to Hondo and San Antonio.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Friday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 66 °
• T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
1035 am CDT Friday may 24 2013 


Discussion... 
mesoscale convective vortex embedded within the mesoscale convective system now moving to the NE with a band of 
thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall stretching from Vanderpool 
to Hondo to Pearsall. The mesoscale convective system will continue to track NE this 
afternoon with addition convection forming on the eastern periphery 
of the system. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall still possible 
through the afternoon with the latest total blended precipitable waters  product 
depicting precipitable waters  between 1.5 and 1.6 inches across our County warning forecast area. Have 
adjusted probability of precipitation and high temperatures based on the anticipated track of 
the mesoscale convective system. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 906 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/ 


Update... 
convection over the Rio Grande plains centered near La Pryor showing 
ccw rotation indicative of an mesoscale convective vortex. Latest hi-res models move the mesoscale convective vortex 
slowly to the east and NE with convection weakening. With total blended 
precipitable waters  between 1.5 and 1.6 inches locally heavy rainfall can be expected 
over the next 1 to 2 hours. Grids and text products updated. 


Previous discussion... /issued 644 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/ 


Aviation... 
an outflow boundary from a cluster of storms that moved from 
northern Texas down to The Hill Country overnight...will continue 
to produce showers and thunderstorms across south central 
Texas...especially across kdrt this morning. With daytime heating 
and unstable weather conditionsin place...expect storms to redevelop 
over the I-35 corridor early this afternoon with MVFR ceilings 
expected as storms move across. VFR conditions are anticipated for 
late this afternoon as the storms clear out the I-35 area 
terminals. MVFR ceilings to return at or after midnight across all 
local sites. 


Previous discussion... /issued 325 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/ 


Short term (today through saturday)... 
an mesoscale convective system/mesoscale convective vortex is slowly dropping south into the Edwards Plateau 
while a weak upper level short-wave is moving northeast into the 
northern Mexican state of Chihuahua. The ongoing showers and 
thunderstorms associated with the mesoscale convective vortex should tend to wane toward 
morning as the airmass stabilizes. The mesoscale convective vortex stalls over western 
parts of south central Texas while the short-wave moves into the 
northern Mexican state of coahuila this afternoon into tonight. 
These two features along with some surface boundaries to interact 
with a moist airmass to generate scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms later this morning through this evening. Some storms 
may produce locally heavy rainfall up to 3 or 4 inches...gusty 
winds and small hail. A few showers and thunderstorms may linger 
overnight. The mesoscale convective vortex will be absorbed by the short-wave by Saturday. 
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop on 
Saturday as the short-wave moves across central Texas. A slight 
cooling trend of daytime temperatures is expected due to clouds 
and rain. 


Long term (saturday night through thursday)... 
the short-wave moves off to the east Saturday night with isolated 
showers and thunderstorms lingering. An upper level ridge builds 
into south central Texas on Sunday and persists into Tuesday. A 
rain-free period with slightly above average temperatures can be 
expected. By the middle of next week...an upper level trough 
weakens the upper level ridge. Have maintained the slight chance 
of showers and thunderstorms for late Wednesday into Thursday due 
to passage of the upper level trough. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 88 72 93 72 94 / 50 50 30 10 - 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 87 71 92 70 92 / 50 50 30 10 - 
New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 72 92 71 93 / 50 40 30 10 - 
Burnet Muni Airport 84 69 87 69 90 / 60 50 30 10 - 
del Rio International Airport 86 73 91 74 94 / 40 50 20 10 - 
Georgetown Muni Airport 86 70 88 70 90 / 50 50 30 10 - 
Hondo Muni Airport 87 73 92 72 93 / 60 50 30 10 - 
San Marcos Muni Airport 88 72 91 71 92 / 50 40 30 10 - 
La Grange - Fayette regional 88 73 90 72 91 / 30 30 20 10 - 
San Antonio International Airport 87 73 91 73 92 / 60 40 30 10 - 
Stinson Muni Airport 88 73 91 72 92 / 50 40 30 10 - 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Mesoscale/aviation...18 
synoptic/grids...13 
public service/data collection...30