Updated: 3:51 am CDT on September 2, 2015
Partly cloudy in the morning...then mostly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy. Lows around 70. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy in the morning...then mostly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 90. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 90s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs in the lower 90s.
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Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 1231 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015 Aviation...18z taf cycle/ Scattered MVFR decks remain across central tafs sites although central terminals are currently reporting VFR. Solid MVFR continues at kdrt with ovc030 stratus deck. Visible satellite trends indicate quicker erosion over the past hour and thus kdrt should be VFR within next 1-1.5 hours. Continued mixing elsewhere will lead to VFR conditions prevailing this afternoon. Some isolated/scattered rain showers will develop near kvct and move northwest towards ksat/kaus 21-01z and have continued the vcsh wording. Surface winds this afternoon will be 10 knots or less from the east-southeast. Rain showers activity will dissipate through the evening with return of low clouds after 08z. MVFR and IFR decks look quite probable again Thursday morning across much of south-central Texas per NAM and GFS bufr soundings. && Previous discussion... /issued 409 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015/ Short term (today through thursday)... south central Texas remains between a ridge of high pressure centered over The Big Bend region and an elongated and weakening middle-to-upper-level disturbance that extends from west Arkansas to the southeast Texas Gulf Coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing along the Gulf Coast in the vicinity of and east of this shear axis from crp to lch with more significant coverage near and east of an mesoscale convective vortex centered near Freeport. Hi-res models suggest these showers may affect Lavaca...Fayette...and Lee counties in our County Warning Area through the morning hours...before daytime heating and a sea breeze trigger isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the coastal plains that will gradually decrease in coverage and dissipate as they move into the I-35 corridor. On Thursday...global models suggest that the persistent upper level low will continue to weaken and become an inverted trough that retrogrades west on the south side of a building ridge over West Texas into OK. This will cause a temporary 0.2-0.4 inch surge of precipitable water values across the County Warning Area...enhancing the sea breeze to cause scattered showers and thunderstorms in the coastal plains and isolated showers and thunderstorms as far west as The Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. In addition...an increase in low level moisture should cause low stratus to persist a bit longer on Thursday morning than they will this morning. Long term (thursday night through tuesday)... isolated showers and thunderstorms extending to the I-35 corridor along the sea breeze front should occur on Friday as the ridge continues to build in from the west. Global models indicate the ridge will strengthen significantly on Saturday and Sunday...but deep moist southeast flow should at least trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms in the coastal plains. Sunday should be the hottest day of the period with highs in the middle-to-upper 90s before temperatures gradually decrease as the ridge slowly weakens on Monday through the first half of next week. && Preliminary point temps/pops... Austin Camp Mabry 73 92 74 95 75 / 20 20 20 20 10 Austin Bergstrom international Airport 71 91 72 94 74 / 20 20 20 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 93 74 95 75 / 20 20 20 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 71 92 73 94 74 / 10 20 20 10 10 del Rio International Airport 75 96 76 97 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 91 74 94 75 / 20 20 20 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 72 94 74 96 74 / 10 20 20 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 92 74 94 75 / 20 20 20 20 10 La Grange - Fayette regional 72 91 74 94 75 / 30 30 30 20 10 San Antonio International Airport 73 93 75 95 75 / 20 20 20 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 73 94 74 96 75 / 20 20 20 20 10 && Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$ Mesoscale/aviation...Allen synoptic/grids...05 public service/data collection...30