193 
fxus64 kewx 210024 
afdewx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
624 PM CST Friday Nov 20 2009 


Update... 
update timing is mainly to reflect expiration of Flash Flood Watch. 
The increased drying trend and evaporative cooling effects on the 
last round of rains is accelerating the temperature drops this 
evening. Thus, went ahead and lowered min temperatures tonight and 
introduced some patchy fog for the next couple mornings. Also, an 
evening increase to likely probability of precipitation was added for the S/southeast counties 
where a near solid band of showers continues to work east across 
the Sat area. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 522 PM CST Friday Nov 20 2009/ 


Discussion... 
see aviation section. 


Aviation... 
a round of rain will affect I-35 terminals between 00-04z...with 
IFR ceilings forecast. IFR conditions will prevail Saturday 
morning...with improvement to VFR between 18-19z. VFR conditions 
will prevail at kdrt through the taf period. A light to moderate 
northerly low level flow will continue into Saturday. 


Previous discussion... /issued 303 PM CST Friday Nov 20 2009/ 


Discussion... 
upper trough will push east of region by dawn. Center of low will 
migrate across area this evening with a good chance of showers 
eastern half until midnight...after midnight..showers exiting eastern 
County Warning Area. Will maintain the Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM. Mostly sunny 
tomorrow with strong northwest flow aloft behind the upper low. 
Mostly clear tomorrow night with southerly flow returning to The Hill 
Country ahead of a weak short wave. This weak disturbance will 
push across the area Sunday with only a few middle/high clouds. 
Increasing moisture and cloudiness Monday with mild daytime 
temperatures. Another cold front will arrive early Tuesday with 
a slight/low chance of showers under zonal flow aloft. A Cool 
Ridge will build down Tuesday night as the northern stream sweeps 
south into the southern Great Plains. Disturbances will carve a 
trough into the arklatex area Wednesday anchoring a cool Dry 
Ridge over the County Warning Area for Thanksgiving. Mostly sunny but cool 
weather expected on Thanksgiving with highs in the middle 60s to near 
70. A dry west northwest flow dry pattern will set up a warming 
next Friday into Saturday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 51 69 47 72 55 / 40 - 0 - - 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 48 70 41 75 50 / 50 - 0 - - 
New Braunfels Muni Airport 50 70 44 73 52 / 60 - 0 - - 
Burnet Muni Airport 46 67 47 68 52 / 30 - 0 - - 
del Rio International Airport 44 74 50 72 53 / - 0 0 - - 
Georgetown Muni Airport 47 67 47 70 53 / 40 - 0 - - 
Hondo Muni Airport 46 73 46 70 53 / 20 - 0 - - 
San Marcos Muni Airport 49 69 46 73 54 / 50 - 0 - - 
La Grange - Fayette regional 52 67 44 72 54 / 70 10 0 10 - 
San Antonio International Airport 49 71 47 72 56 / 50 - 0 - - 
Stinson Muni Airport 50 71 47 73 55 / 60 - 0 - - 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


18/11