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fxus64 kewx 090519 
afdewx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
1119 PM CST Monday Feb 8 2010 


Discussion... 
see aviation section. 


&& 


Aviation... 
MVFR ceilings have spread to the southwest into the San Antonio area. 
MVFR ceilings will continue along i35 for the rest of the night and 
lift to VFR by around 14z. Ceilings will remain VFR through the rest 
of the forecast and for the entire forecast at drt. Gusty winds 
will continue until Tuesday evening along i35. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 845 PM CST Monday Feb 8 2010/ 


Update...dry surface ridge continues to build in at middle evening 
behind a strong cold front. Activity has ended across the region 
with gradually clearing skies from the west from The Hill Country 
southeast to south central portions of the County Warning Area. Satellite trends 
show clouds will continue to thin across The Hill Country and over 
south central and southeast portions of the County Warning Area with the northeast 
corridor..where the greatest cold air advection pattern exists..the last to thin 
out late tonight. Sky and weather grids were amended as a result 
to reflect this. Current forecast temperature trends on track. 
Grids and text forecasts will be issued shortly. 


Previous discussion... /issued 343 PM CST Monday Feb 8 2010/ 


Discussion... 
showers and thunderstorms will gradually exit to the east this 
evening as the cold front pushes through. Have gotten reports of 
mostly pea and dime-sized hail with the strongest of these storms 
and will likely continue to see additional small hail through 
this evening. The position of the front is quite obvious via 
surface observations as winds have shifted to the north along the 
I-35 corridor and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s ahead 
of the frontal passage compared to upper 40s to middle 50s behind the front. 
Tight pressure gradients will result in northwest to north winds 
of 15 to 25 miles per hour with gusts to 35 miles per hour this evening and overnight. 
While blustery...winds will remain just below Wind Advisory 
criteria. 


Temperatures will plummet to near freezing across the region 
overnight...with sub-freezing temperatures expected across The 
Hill Country. Coupled with the strong winds...wind chill readings 
will be in the 20s during the morning commute. Temperatures will 
warm into the upper 40s to near 50 Tuesday afternoon with some 
sunshine filtering through. Temperatures will drop to near or 
below freezing Wednesday morning with slightly warmer readings 
across the Rio Grande plains. 


The big dilemma for the forecast is the middle of the week. A wet 
and cold pattern is expected as moisture pools ahead of the next 
disturbance aloft. The concern is resolving the issue of wintery 
precipitation. Forecast soundings are still indicating the 
possibility of a mix of rain and light snow across much of the 
region on Wednesday transitioning to mostly rain Wednesday 
afternoon. The potpourri of winter weather continues...with rain 
and/or snow and/or sleet possible Wednesday night becoming a mix 
of rain and snow Thursday morning. Warmer temperatures at the 
surface and aloft on Thursday indicate mostly liquid precipitation 
becoming a mix of rain and snow late Thursday. Little to no 
accumulations of sleet are expected. Could see some snow 
accumulations particularly across the higher elevations and raised 
surfaces...but any accumulations for this 24-36 hour time frame 
would be of minimal impact. Ideally...it would be as clear-cut as 
this...but anticipated evaporative cooling at the surface and 
through the atmosphere will likely alter the form of the 
precipitation. With this said...confidence is high in a cold and 
wet middle of the week with much lower confidence on the winter 
event. 


Wet and seasonably cool conditions will sum up the end of the 
forecast period. Another round of Grey and damp conditions looks 
to be in store for the weekend. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 33 47 32 45 33 / 0 0 0 30 60 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 33 46 29 43 34 / 0 0 0 30 60 
New Braunfels Muni Airport 35 48 32 45 34 / 0 - - 40 60 
Burnet Muni Airport 30 44 29 41 32 / 0 0 0 30 50 
del Rio International Airport 37 50 36 44 37 / 0 0 20 50 50 
Georgetown Muni Airport 30 45 29 44 33 / - 0 0 20 50 
Hondo Muni Airport 34 48 33 44 35 / 0 0 - 50 60 
San Marcos Muni Airport 35 47 31 46 33 / 0 - - 30 60 
La Grange - Fayette regional 36 47 32 47 36 / 10 - - 30 60 
San Antonio International Airport 36 49 33 45 34 / 0 - - 40 60 
Stinson Muni Airport 37 49 33 46 35 / 0 0 - 40 60 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


02/05