Updated: 10:00 AM EST on February 28, 2015
Clear. High of 19F with a windchill as low as -2F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 15 mph.
Partly cloudy. Low of 5F with a windchill as low as -6F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 15 mph.
Overcast with a chance of snow. High of 25F with a windchill as low as 0F. Winds from the SW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 30%.
Partly cloudy with a chance of snow. Fog overnight. Low of 7F with a windchill as low as -6F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 30%.
Clear in the morning, then mostly cloudy. High of 21F with a windchill as low as -2F. Winds from the WNW at 10 to 15 mph.
Clear in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Low of 12F with a windchill as low as 0F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph.
Overcast with a chance of snow. Fog early. High of 28F with a windchill as low as 5F. Breezy. Winds from the South at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 60% with accumulations up to 3 in. possible.
Overcast with a chance of snow. Fog overnight. Low of 7F with a windchill as low as -9F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 20 mph shifting to the NW after midnight. Chance of snow 60% with accumulations up to 2 in. possible.
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then overcast. High of 12F with a windchill as low as -2F. Winds from the NW at 10 to 15 mph.
Partly cloudy. Low of -8F with a windchill as low as -18F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. High of 10F with a windchill as low as -20F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Low of 0F with a windchill as low as -17F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph.
Clear with a chance of snow. High of 23F with a windchill as low as -13F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 40% with accumulations up to 1 in. possible.
Partly cloudy with a chance of snow. Fog overnight. Low of 16F with a windchill as low as 5F. Winds from the SW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 40% with accumulations up to 3 in. possible.
Partly cloudy with a chance of snow. High of 23F with a windchill as low as 3F. Breezy. Winds from the NW at 20 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 20%.
Clear. Low of 5F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 15 mph.
Clear. High of 25F with a windchill as low as -2F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 9F with a windchill as low as -4F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Fog early. High of 28F with a windchill as low as 18F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 21F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear with a chance of snow. High of 30F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of snow 40%.
Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 21F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Updated: 12:22 PM EST
|Temperature: 16.8 °F||Dew Point: 6 °F||Humidity: 61%||Wind: SW at 3.0 mph||Pressure: 30.59 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 17 °F||Graphs|
Location: RAWS HIGH BRIDGE MI US, Chatham, MI
Updated: 11:04 AM EST
|Temperature: 10 °F||Dew Point: -5 °F||Humidity: 49%||Wind: WSW at 6 mph||Pressure: -||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Location: Forest Glen, Michigan, MI
Updated: 12:22 PM EST
|Temperature: 20.7 °F||Dew Point: -10 °F||Humidity: 23%||Wind: North at 3.8 mph||Pressure: 30.83 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Windchill: 15 °F||Graphs|
Location: RAWS SENEY MI US, Germfask, MI
Updated: 11:03 AM EST
|Temperature: 15 °F||Dew Point: -3 °F||Humidity: 43%||Wind: SW at 5 mph||Pressure: -||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 7 °F||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Marquette Michigan 628 am EST Sat Feb 28 2015 Short term...(today and tonight) issued at 351 am EST Sat Feb 28 2015 00z radiosonde observations/latest WV imagery and RUC analysis show a more split flow over namerica with Upper Michigan on the southern flank of a west-northwest flow on the SW flank of Arctic branch closed low drifting off the Newfoundland coast. Shortwave ridge aprchg through Minnesota/very dry air shown on local 00z radiosonde observations /00z precipitable waters were around 0.07 inch or 30-35 percent of normal/ are resulting in mostly clear skies early this morning. Despite dryness of this airmass and chill with 00z 850 mb temperatures in the -16 to -17c range... steady west-southwest flow under the rather tight pressure gradient to the north of hi center in the Ohio River valley has restricted The Drop in temperature over much of the County Warning Area...especially at the more exposed locations near the lakes...where current temperatures range from zero to 10 above. But some of the sheltered interior locations have seen the Mercury fall to as low as -15f to -20f. Looking upstream...hi clouds are streaming into Minnesota in advance of a shortwave moving east into ndakota. But since the airmass in the northern plains is also quite dry /area precipitable waters are under 0.10 inch and the 00z 850 mb and 700 mb dewpt depressions at Bismarck were 19c and 30c respectively/...there is an absence of precipitation accompanying this disturbance. Main forecast concerns in the short term will focus on maximum temperatures today and impact tonight of shortwave now moving through the northern plains. Today...shortwave ridge axis now in Minnesota is prognosticated to pass through the County Warning Area this afternoon. Accompanying area of 850 mb-5 relative humidity under 20 percent will result in sunshine filtered at times by some hi clouds streaming into the area in advance of shortwave that is forecast to reach northwest Minnesota by 00z sun. As 850 mb temperatures rebound to around -14c in the SW flow around surface hi pressure shifting toward the Middle Atlantic States...expect maximum temperatures to top out a couple of degrees higher than obsvd yesterday...perhaps up to 25 in the downslope areas near lake supply between Marquette and Baraga. The lowest temperatures in the teens are likely downwind of the ice covered Northern Bay of Green Bay/Lake Michigan. Tonight...shortwave over northwest Minnesota is prognosticated to shift east across Northern Lake supply and into Ontario just east of the lake by 12z on sun. Some DPVA/modest deep layer qvector cnvgc is forecast to influence Upper Michigan ahead of the shortwave. But modest moisture inflow/isentropic ascent into antecedent Bone dry airmass will greatly restrict probability of precipitation. In fact...most of the models indicate a mainly dry overngt and generate only patchy light precipitation. Seems the best chance for precipitation will be over lake supply and perhaps downwind of Lake Michigan from Manistique to Newberry. Will retain mention of schc probability of precipitation...mainly overngt. Low temperatures tonight could be tricky with lingering dry air in place before thicker clouds arrive. Tended to go higher with min temperatures in the downslope areas near lake supply in prevailing south-southwest flow. Long term...(sunday through friday) issued at 351 am EST Sat Feb 28 2015 Main issue this forecast period will be widespread light to moderate snowfall potential Tuesday into Tuesday evening with continued moderating temperatures. Sunday through Monday...a surface trough/weak cold front will continue to shift eastward and pass through the central and eastern portions of the Upper Peninsula through the day Sunday. Moisture will be shallow and fairly limited along the front with continued weak forcing. This will touch off very light snow through the day Sunday. Behind the front...an upper level 500mb trough is poised to swing across the u.P. Sunday night. As this happens...enough moisture will remain in place with minimal additional moisture added from the very ice covered Lake Superior to allow a chance of lake effect snow showers to develop for west to northwest wind favored locations. 850mb temperatures will drop to around -15c to -20c allowing for sufficient Delta T values for lake effect with the trough axis sliding across...but lake effect intensity/coverage will be limited to areas that breaks in the ice cover occur. This is especially true now that the ice extent on Lake Superior is at 95.55 covered...which is the maximum for the season to this point. Any lake effect that is able to develop Sunday night will be short lived as much drier air and high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft push into the upper Great Lakes region during the day Monday. This will all most areas to see mainly sunny skies during the day Monday with highs in the 20s for most areas. This is still be around 5 to 10 degrees below normal...but it will definitely be warmer than the last several weeks. Monday night through Tuesday night...the surface high pressure system will be short lived and will shift to the lower Great Lakes through Monday evening...then to the eastern Seaboard late Monday night. This will allow a more moist...slightly warmer...southerly flow to develop on the back side of the high. At the same time...a surface low pressure system is prognosticated to develop along a shortwave over The Four Corners region of the Continental U.S.. another stronger wave of energy is prognosticated to push across central Canada and work toward the James Bay area. Model differences continue with the phasing of the two systems. The 18z/27 00z/28 GFS continues to be more progressive with both systems and the phasing of the systems. Additionally...the GFS intensifies the southern system more aggressively than the last two runs of the ec. Even though it is more progressive overall...the latest runs of the GFS are slower with bringing precipitation into the area than it has been over the previous days runs...more in line with the ec. The ec 12/27 00z/28 continues to be much slower with the phasing...keeping the precipitation out of the area until very late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The overall impact...as far as snowfall amounts...will largely depend on how and when these system merge. Either way...it does look like most of the u.P. Will see widespread snowfall through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening...with the heavier snowfall totals expected across south central and the east half of the u.P. Models agree with quantitative precipitation forecast being painted out across these areas to the point that likely probability of precipitation are in order especially Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening ..again the amounts are the main question at this point with the GFS placing around a half inch quantitative precipitation forecast across the area and the ec painting around a quarter inch. This would give snowfall totals of around 1 to 3 inches over the west half with around 2 to 5 inches over the east half...again these are preliminary estimates and will be adjusted as models begin to come into better agreement with better sampling over time. The fortunate aspect of this system is that it is fairly quick moving...which should help to keep snowfall totals in check...but it could be somewhat of a hassle as the heavier snow would fall during the Tuesday afternoon/evening commute. Wednesday through the remaining extended...both the ec and GFS agree on an upper level trough axis along with continued moisture across the area during this time period. The colder temperatures aloft along with any additional moisture off Lake Superior will allow for lake effect snow chances across portions of the u... through Thursday. Again...the exact location along with intensity will be largely tied to any breaks in the ice cover on Lake Superior. The favored locations based solely on wind would be for the west to west northwest wind favored snow belts with a surface high pressure system passing to the south of the region. Generally...any lake effect snow should remain fairly light...but this will depend on any breaks in the ice on Lake Superior. Thursday night...the surface high will shift to the east of the area as a surface trough approaches the u.P. From the west. This will effectively turn winds south to southwesterly...ending any lake effect snow chances across the u.P. && Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning) issued at 628 am EST Sat Feb 28 2015 A dry SW flow around hi pressure shifting toward the Middle Atlantic States will bring VFR conditions to the taf sites through this forecast period. Some thicker clouds will arrive tonight in advance of an aprchg low pressure trough... but the llvls should remain dry enough to maintain VFR ceilings even if there is some very light snow. && Marine...(for the 4 am Lake Superior forecast issuance) issued at 351 am EST Sat Feb 28 2015 No gales expected into next week...with winds no higher than 20 to 25 kts. Lake Superior remains mostly ice covered and though shifting winds with a series of trough passages may cause holes to open in the ice from time to time...a continued dominance of Arctic air will maintain an overall extensive ice cover. && MQT watches/warnings/advisories... Upper Michigan... none. Lake Superior... none. Lake Michigan... none. && $$ Short term...kc long term...kec aviation...kc marine...kc