Updated: 7:38 PM EST on November 25, 2015
Rain likely...possibly mixed with drizzle. Patchy fog overnight. Lows around 41. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph...except southwest 10 to 20 mph near the shore. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Rain. Widespread fog in the morning. Areas of fog in the afternoon. Highs around 44. Light winds becoming north 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Rain...possibly mixed with snow and sleet in the evening...then snow likely overnight. Snow and sleet accumulation around an inch. Lows around 29. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Colder. Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow showers in the morning...then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs around 33. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mostly clear. Lows around 17. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Highs around 35. Lows around 23.
Mostly sunny. Highs around 36.
Partly cloudy. Lows around 25. Highs around 37.
Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows around 28.
Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs around 37.
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 28.
Mostly cloudy. Highs around 36.
323 PM EST Wed Nov 25 2015 /223 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015/
... Wet snow to lead to potentially hazardous travel conditions
Thanksgiving day and night...
Patchy freezing drizzle is possible Thanksgiving morning over
portions of far western Upper Michigan. Rain and snow will increase
through the day and into Thursday night across the entire region.
The precipitation will change to all snow over western Upper
Michigan during the late morning hours... then over north central
Upper Michigan during the afternoon. Rain may not change to snow over
far south central and eastern Upper Michigan until late Thursday
evening. Generally... 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation is expected
by daybreak Friday. With wet snow leading to slushy snow accumulation
on roadways... roads will become especially slippery... particularly
during the late afternoon and evening hours over central Upper
Michigan where the heavier snow is expected to fall.
If you have travel plans for Thanksgiving day and night... be
prepared for the possibility of hazardous driving conditions. Stay
tuned to the latest forecasts for updates on the expected wintry
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Updated: 8:10 PM EST
|Temperature: 44.2 °F||Dew Point: 41 °F||Humidity: 87%||Wind: SW at 12.0 mph||Pressure: 30.03 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 38 °F||Graphs|
Location: MesoWest, Gulliver, MI
Updated: 7:30 PM EST
|Temperature: 45 °F||Dew Point: 42 °F||Humidity: 87%||Wind: SW at 6 mph||Pressure: 29.33 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 42 °F||Graphs|
Location: NOS_NWLON, Gould City, MI
Updated: 7:36 PM EST
|Temperature: 48 °F||Dew Point: -||Humidity: -||Wind: SSW at 29 mph||Pressure: 30.11 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 39 °F||Graphs|
Location: Forest Glen, Michigan, MI
Updated: 6:05 PM EST
|Temperature: 43.5 °F||Dew Point: 38 °F||Humidity: 81%||Wind: East at 3.8 mph||Pressure: 30.28 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Windchill: 42 °F||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Marquette Michigan 619 PM EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015 Short term...(this evening through thursday) issued at 348 PM EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015 SW flow in on the increase ahead of the spinning 500mb low set up over the SW states...and the north stream trough over central Canada through Montana. At the surface an initial push of light rain has developed and moved across central Upper Michigan...with lighter drizzle behind it...as the cold front at 20z was situated southeast of a line from International Falls to Alexandria Minnesota and far northwest Iowa. The cold front will continue to slowly edge east...crossing West Lake Superior this evening. A better plume of moisture will set up over east Upper Michigan...with moisture up to around 700mb. As a result of the higher dew points and increased moisture off Lake Michigan...continued to mention patchy to areas of fog overnight into middle morning Thursday. The main concern Thursday morning will be as temperatures cool far west the low level moisture and pocket of warmer air allow for precipitation to fall into the cool surfaces and freeze...with moisture generally stuck below 850mb. On the positive side...only light drizzle/freezing drizzle is expected before the colder air slides in changing the freezing drizzle to snow by around 15z Thursday. For this icing potential...and the slow transition to snow W-E...the Special Weather Statement will continue. The cold front stretching from around imt to Munising at 12z Thursday will be slowed down as it tries to moves east...thanks to a wave sliding up from the S. This will slow down the transition to all snow and should allow surface temperatures along Lake Michigan to rise into the low 40s by 18z. There continues to be slight differences in the timing of the change over to snow...with the NAM still on the warm side. Went with a blended solution between the NAM and GFS for temperatures and resultant precipitation type. This limits any significant snow accumulations to around 1.5in or less Thursday...basically west of a line from imt to Munising. This could result in slick conditions on untreated roadways as surface temperatures cool into the upper 20s late in the day over the west and snow begins to accumulate. Long term...(thursday night through wednesday) issued at 344 PM EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015 Main forecast concerns in the medium/extended term remain focused on wintry precipitation expected on Thursday night and need for headlines. Quite weather will follow late Friday through the weekend as upper ridge follows toward the upper lakes ahead of another potentially sgnft event next Tuesday as western trough and a surface low pressure lift toward the Great Lakes. Although there will be some chilly periods mainly on Friday/Friday night...temperatures through the medium/ extended period will generally be above normal as the deep Arctic air remains to the north. Thursday night...waves of generally weak low pressure running NE along slowly exiting surface cold fnt and under SW flow aloft nearly parallel to that fnt are forecast to bring precipitation to mainly the central and eastern portions of the County Warning Area. Atlhough the low pressure waves are forecast to be relatively weak...area of upper dvgc in rrq of 300 mb jet maximum and fgen that is forecast to be sharpest by both the 12z GFS/NAM at the 850 mb-8 level during the evening will be the most sgnft forcing mechanisms. These forecast dynamics point toward the higher quantitative precipitation forecast over the southeast County Warning Area. The 12z NAM and regional Canadian models show a bit more precipitation as compared to the 12z GFS/12z larger scale Canadian/00z and 12z European model (ecmwf). Per NCEP discussion...followed the somewhat drier GFS/ecwmf scenario. Ptype will remain a concern in the evening as the GFS/European model (ecmwf) show 0c 850 mb isotherm running from just southeast of Iron Mountain to near Grand Marais/Newberry at 00z Friday before cold air advection/dynamic cooling drop the 850 mb temperatures below 0c from Menominee to Manistique in the 03z-06z time period. As the stronger forcing exits after 06z...expect precipitation to diminish... last over the ncentral and east. As for the details...included a mention of snow...sleet /with elevated warm layer on some forecast sdngs/ and rain over the southeast portions in the evening changing to all snow. With the bulk of the quantitative precipitation forecast falling in the evening over the southeast before the change to snow...total snow forecast will be about 1 to 2 inches...greatest over the higher terrain of the ncentral where low level upslope north winds will accentuate the quantitative precipitation forecast a bit even though sharper forcing will be exiting to the east relatively early. Based on expected snow totals mainly in the 1 to 3 inch range on Thursday/Thursday night...reissued Special Weather Statement to alert the public to potential hazardous travel. Friday...as northern branch northwest flow pushes into the upper lakes...the arrival of deep layer qvector dvgc/drier air and surface hi pressure ridge will end any lingering morning snow showers over mainly the northern tier forced by upslope northerly flow. Despite incoming 850 mb temperatures as low as -10 to -12c... strengthening subsidence that drops inversion base at or below 3k feet above ground level/ deepening drying and incrsg anti-cyclonic flow will minimize the potential for any sgnft les. Expect at least partial clearing by late in the afternoon with the arrival of the low level ridge axis/sharper anti-cyclonic flow. Even if there is some later day sunshine...temperatures will hold in the 20s at most places. Friday night...with hi pressure ridge/axis of lighter winds and lower precipitable water in the 0.1-0.25 inch range under mostly clear skies...expect min temperatures to fall sharply over the fresh snow cover. Will tend toward the lower end of guidance...except over the Keweenaw where quicker arrival of sharper pressure gradient/stronger west winds on the northern flank of ridge axis sinking to the S will limit the diurnal temperature drop. Sat...steady west winds between surface ridge axis dropping just to the S and falling mslp to the north associated with low pressure moving near Hudson Bay is forecast to advect 850 mb temperatures in the 0-2c range into the upper lakes. Under mosunny skies...temperatures will rebound into the 30s despite the lowering sun angle. Sat ngt/sun...persistent steady west winds ahead of cold fnt dropping through northwest Ontario and attendant to surface low tracking into Quebec will limit the nocturnal temperature drop despite persistent dry air aloft/mostly clear skies. Although this fnt is forecast to drop through the area on sun... passage of stronger forcing to the NE and absence of middle level moisture indicates a dry frontal passage. Wind shift to the north-northeast/shallow infusion of colder air behind the frontal passage may result in some low clouds mainly over the northern tier in upslope flow under low inversion base forecast at or below 3k feet above ground level that will minimize les chances. Extended...surface hi pressure under upper ridge axis will bring dry weather to the County Warning Area at least Sun night...when low temperatures may fall at least close to normal with light winds under surface ridge axis/mostly clear or clearing skies. The forecast for early next week will then depend on how quickly deep western trough/ cutoff 500 mb low shifts to the east. Since this disturbance is cutoff... suspect the slower model forecasts not showing any precipitation arriving until at least Monday night are on the right track. As the cutoff low drifts through the Great Lakes...best chance for more sgnft precipitation will come on Tuesday...when the deeper 00z European model (ecmwf)/12z cdnd models indicate a potential for a fairly sgnft wet snow or rain/snow event in the sharp cyclonic flow around the deep occlusion tracking from the middle MS River Valley into the middle/upper lakes. The 12z European model (ecmwf) has retreated a bit from its earlier deeper depiction...and along with the 12z GFS given the poor agreement among the longer range models though...will hold on to model consensus forecast. If the surface low is as deep and follows the track shown by the European model (ecmwf)...some les will linger on Wednesday as the cyclonic northerly flow behind the departing low advects 850 mb temperatures at least close to -10c into the upper lakes. && Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening) issued at 619 PM EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015 MVFR ceilings are the rule initially this evening...ahead of light rain showers expanding from the S. More abundant low-level moisture in the form of more rain and drizzle will push in tonight with IFR ceilings expected...ahead of a cold front. The best chance of precipitation and widespread IFR ceilings will push in around 09z and will continue to fall to LIFR/vlifr with light snow in the afternoon. && Marine...(for the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) issued at 320 PM EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015 S-SW gales to 35kts will diminish this evening as the initial low over east Minnesota moves to central Ontario. As the low ejects across James Bay and into northern Quebec overnight into Thursday morning...the trough will slide across Lake Superior...slowing down significantly over far Eastern Lake Superior and Lake Huron Thursday night. North winds behind the trough could gust to around 30kts...but otherwise a weakening trend will be the rule as a large ridge of high pressure builds across Lake Superior Friday through the rest of the period. Winds may increase Saturday-Saturday night as a low swings across North Ontario and Hudson Bay...increasing the pressure gradient briefly over Lake Superior. && MQT watches/warnings/advisories... Upper Michigan... none. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for lsz266-267. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until 1 am EST Thursday for lmz248-250. && $$ Short term...kf long term...kc aviation...07 marine...kf