Waukegan, Illinois Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 44°
  • Overcast
  • Wind: NW 13 mph
  • Humidity: 73%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 36°
  • Pressure: 30.01 in. -
  • Heat Index: 38

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Next 12 Hours

1  am
4  am
7  am
10  am
1  pm
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
Chance of Snow
Chance of Snow
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
43°
39°
36°
37°
39°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Friday
  • Chance of Snow
  • High: 43 °
  • Low: 30 °
  • Chance of Snow
  • Saturday
  • Clear
  • High: 43 °
  • Low: 30 °
  • Clear
  • Sunday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 48 °
  • Low: 37 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Monday
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • High: 54 °
  • Low: 45 °
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • Tuesday
  • Chance of Rain
  • High: 55 °
  • Low: 41 °
  • Chance of Rain

Forecast for Waukegan, Illinois

Updated: 10:00 PM CDT on October 30, 2014

Wind Advisory in effect from 7 am to 7 PM CDT Friday...
  • Friday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of snow and a chance of rain. High of 43F. Windy. Winds from the NNW at 30 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of snow 40%.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of snow and a chance of rain. Low of 30F with a windchill as low as 21F. Windy. Winds from the North at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

  • Saturday

    Overcast with a chance of snow and a chance of rain in the morning, then clear. High of 43F. Winds from the North at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Clear. Low of 30F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the South after midnight.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy. High of 48F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 37F. Breezy. Winds from the SSW at 15 to 20 mph.

  • Monday

    Overcast. High of 54F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 15 to 20 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Overcast with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 45F. Breezy. Winds from the SSW at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.

  • Tuesday

    Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 55F. Winds from the WSW at 10 to 15 mph shifting to the NW in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Overcast with a chance of rain. Low of 41F. Winds from the North at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Wednesday

    Mostly cloudy. High of 54F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the SE in the afternoon.

  • Wednesday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 39F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Thursday

    Mostly cloudy. High of 50F. Breezy. Winds from the WNW at 20 to 25 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 34F with a windchill as low as 27F. Breezy. Winds from the WNW at 15 to 25 mph.

  • Friday

    Partly cloudy. High of 48F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 37F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Clear. High of 46F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 36F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Mostly cloudy. High of 45F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 32F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. High of 46F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 32F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Wind Advisory  Statement as of 8:56 PM CDT on October 30, 2014


... Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 am to 7 PM CDT Friday...

* timing... Friday morning through Friday afternoon.

* Winds... northerly to 50 mph.

* Impacts... tree limbs and power lines could be blown down.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 30 to 39 mph... or
gusts between 45 and 57 mph... are likely. Winds this strong can
cause minor property damage unless precautions are taken. Driving
may be difficult... especially in high profile vehicles. Motorists
should be alert and use caution.






Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: North Side, Waukegan, Waukegan, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 45.9 °F Dew Point: 38 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: West at 7.6 mph Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 42 °F Graphs

Location: HADS WAUKEGAN HARBOR NWS-GLOS, Waukegan, IL

Updated: 12:40 AM CDT

Temperature: 47 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: WNW at 14 mph Pressure: 30.05 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 41 °F Graphs

Location: The Pines, Gurnee, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 44.4 °F Dew Point: 40 °F Humidity: 83% Wind: SSE at 2.7 mph Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 44 °F Graphs

Location: Westgate, Gurnee, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 44.1 °F Dew Point: 34 °F Humidity: 68% Wind: NNW at 5.4 mph Pressure: 29.29 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 41 °F Graphs

Location: Prairie Ridge Farm, Green Oaks, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 45.7 °F Dew Point: 38 °F Humidity: 74% Wind: NW at 6.9 mph Pressure: 30.06 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 42 °F Graphs

Location: Jerry's South Central Zion 2, Zion, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 44.8 °F Dew Point: 37 °F Humidity: 74% Wind: North at 8.0 mph Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 40 °F Graphs

Location: Jerry's South Central Zion 1, Zion, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 45.1 °F Dew Point: 35 °F Humidity: 67% Wind: SSE at 5.0 mph Pressure: 29.90 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 42 °F Graphs

Location: Reserve at the Merit Club, Libertyville, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 46.5 °F Dew Point: 37 °F Humidity: 69% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.05 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 46 °F Graphs

Location: Zion E.S.D.A., Zion, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 44.3 °F Dew Point: 38 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: NNW at 6.0 mph Pressure: 29.95 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 41 °F Graphs

Location: Tom's Central Zion, Zion, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 46.0 °F Dew Point: 40 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: West at 2.7 mph Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 46 °F Graphs

Location: Near West Elementary School, Zion, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 44.2 °F Dew Point: 35 °F Humidity: 70% Wind: NW at 8.1 mph Pressure: 30.01 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 40 °F Graphs

Location: Concord Oaks East, Gurnee, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 44.2 °F Dew Point: 36 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: NNE at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 42 °F Graphs

Location: Concord Oaks - West, Gurnee, IL

Updated: 1:44 AM CDT

Temperature: 44.5 °F Dew Point: 39 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: NNE at 9.0 mph Pressure: 30.02 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 40 °F Graphs

Location: MesoWest GURNEE IL US UPR, Russell, IL

Updated: 12:05 AM CDT

Temperature: 42 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: Calm Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 42 °F Graphs

Location: Libertyville Township Highway Dept., Libertyville, IL

Updated: 1:34 AM CDT

Temperature: 45.0 °F Dew Point: 40 °F Humidity: 82% Wind: NW at 3.2 mph Pressure: 29.95 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 44 °F Graphs

Location: Deerpath, Lake Villa, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 43.5 °F Dew Point: 36 °F Humidity: 74% Wind: WNW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.04 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 44 °F Graphs

Location: Lorelei Acres, Zion, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 44.2 °F Dew Point: 38 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: West at 5.4 mph Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.01 in Windchill: 41 °F Graphs

Location: Bull Creek, Libertyville, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 45.8 °F Dew Point: 40 °F Humidity: 79% Wind: WNW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.98 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 46 °F Graphs

Location: Country Place, Lindenhurst, IL

Updated: 1:39 AM CDT

Temperature: 43.7 °F Dew Point: 36 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: South at 3.2 mph Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 42 °F Graphs

Location: Sunshine Subdivision, Third Lake, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 45.1 °F Dew Point: 33 °F Humidity: 63% Wind: NNE at 3.1 mph Pressure: 29.06 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 44 °F Graphs

Location: The Highlands, Libertyville, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 45.9 °F Dew Point: 38 °F Humidity: 73% Wind: West at 7.8 mph Pressure: 29.17 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 42 °F Graphs

Location: 7th & Landon (Near Metra), Winthrop Harbor, IL

Updated: 1:44 AM CDT

Temperature: 46.2 °F Dew Point: 37 °F Humidity: 71% Wind: NW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.01 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 46 °F Graphs

Location: Lake Forest, IL

Updated: 1:40 AM CDT

Temperature: 46.4 °F Dew Point: 40 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: WNW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.28 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 46 °F Graphs

Location: CountryPlaceM, Lindenhurst, IL

Updated: 1:34 AM CDT

Temperature: 43.5 °F Dew Point: 34 °F Humidity: 70% Wind: NW at 2.2 mph Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 44 °F Graphs

Location: Covenant Cove, Winthrop Harbor, IL

Updated: 1:45 AM CDT

Temperature: 44.7 °F Dew Point: 38 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: WSW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.03 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 45 °F Graphs

Location: Greentree, Libertyville, IL

Updated: 1:45 AM CDT

Temperature: 45.5 °F Dew Point: 40 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: WNW at 1.6 mph Pressure: 29.39 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 46 °F Graphs

Location: King Muir, Lake Forest, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 46.2 °F Dew Point: 16 °F Humidity: 29% Wind: South at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.27 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 46 °F Graphs

Location: Greggs Landing, Vernon Hills, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 45.5 °F Dew Point: 37 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.03 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 46 °F Graphs

Location: Grayslake, IL

Updated: 1:31 AM CDT

Temperature: 45.2 °F Dew Point: 40 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: SW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.04 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 45 °F Graphs

Location: Lake Linden, Lindenhurst, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 43.6 °F Dew Point: 36 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.02 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 44 °F Graphs

Location: Oakmont, Vernon Hills, IL

Updated: 1:43 AM CDT

Temperature: 45.4 °F Dew Point: 39 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: NW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.04 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 45 °F Graphs

Location: Haryan Farms, Grayslake, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 44.7 °F Dew Point: 39 °F Humidity: 79% Wind: NNE at 7.0 mph Pressure: 29.29 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 41 °F Graphs

Location: Cedar Crossing, Lake Villa, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 43.2 °F Dew Point: 36 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: West at 4.3 mph Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 41 °F Graphs

Location: New Century Town, Vernon Hills, IL

Updated: 1:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 45.2 °F Dew Point: 39 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: NW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.97 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 45 °F Graphs

Location: Silver Oaks, Round Lake Beach, IL

Updated: 1:35 AM CDT

Temperature: 44.6 °F Dew Point: 40 °F Humidity: 82% Wind: North at 7.8 mph Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 40 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Illinois 
113 am CDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


Update... 
921 PM 


Middle-evening update... 


Have made some additional minor refinements to probability of precipitation for showers with 
approaching cold front tonight. More importantly...have bumped quantitative precipitation forecast 
and snowfall amounts associated with lake effect precipitation 
expected Friday afternoon and evening in Northwest Indiana. 


Cold front continues to develop southeastward across Iowa... 
Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin this evening...as cold Canadian 
high pressure expands southeast toward the region. Gusty winds still 
remain a few hours away for the local forecast area with 
strengthening gusts more sharply falling temperatures after 
midnight. Generally weak radar echoes noted across the region as 
cold advection and low-level frontogenesis strengthens upstream of 
the County Warning Area. High-res guidance continues to depict development of 
scattered light showers/sprinkles after midnight as the colder air 
spreads in...and have largely based hourly pop trends along these 
trends. 


All headlines remain unchanged through the period...with no changes 
in expectations of the very gusty winds...and the resulting large 
waves and Lakeshore flood potential along Lake Michigan. Becoming a 
bit more concerned about potential for significant lake effect snow 
over Northwest Indiana Friday afternoon/evening...and even portions 
of the Illinois Lake shore areas Friday night. Really impressive 
thermodynamic set-up with cold air over Warm Lake waters and strong 
unidirectional northerly fetch over the lake. Allowing for lake 
surface temperatures in the low 50s f...lake-850 hpa Delta T approaches 20 
degree c during the period and yields lake-induced forecast convective available potential energy up to 
1200 j/kg and inversion levels above 15 kft. The only potential 
limiting factor...and item of great uncertainty...is the warmth of 
the water/surface wet bulb temperatures supplied by the long fetch over 
warm waters. Given strong instability...with good likelihood of 
thunder...thermodynamic instability may well be able to overcome 
warm low levels and produce accumulating wet snowfall. With much 
uncertainty remaining...have increased quantitative precipitation forecast/snowfall amounts slightly 
across Northwest Indiana Friday afternoon/night to the 1-3 inch 
range...and have indicated the potential for locally higher amounts 
in the advisory west-southwest text. If column is able to cool sufficiently for 
long duration +sn/tssn...could be several inches more in some spots. 
In addition...though instability weakens later Friday night as winds 
shift northeast...expect less intense rain/snow or all snow showers 
to impinge upon parts of the Illinois shore and Stateline areas as 
well. 


Ratzer 


&& 


Short term... 
332 PM CDT... 


The main forecast focus this afternoon continues to center around 
the storm system expected impact the region late tonight through 
Friday night. Strong winds...and the potential for some periods of 
heavy lake effect snow are the primary concerns. 


We are issuing a Wind Advisory for most of the eastern half of the 
area...with the exception of Lake...Porter...Jasper and Newton 
counties in Indiana...where a Winter Weather Advisory is being 
issued. See below for more details. 


Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows a rather vigorous 
upper level impulse now moving just east of Lake Winnipeg and over 
far southwestern Ontario. This wave is expected to continue digging 
south-southeastward tonight along the eastern periphery of an upper 
ridge...current centered across the inter mountain west. As this 
occurs...an area of surface low pressure will shift southward across 
lower Michigan into Friday morning. Farther northwest...a rather 
Stout 1036 mb high is also expected to rapidly build southeastward 
across the Dakotas and upper Midwest into Friday. This still looks 
to set the stage for strong northern winds across the area during 
the day Friday as strong pressure rises and strong cold air 
advection lead to a quick ramp up of northerly winds in the wake of 
a cold frontal passage late tonight. Model soundings all suggest 
mean mixing layer wind speeds could top 40 knots across mainly the 
eastern half of the area inland from the lake...meaning wind gusts 
could easily reach this magnitude in most areas. However...areas 
directly adjacent to Lake Michigan in northeastern Illinois and 
northwestern Indiana could experience even stronger gusts up around 
50 knots with the strong northerly onshore component to the winds. 
Winds look to remain into the evening on Halloween...though wind 
speeds should gradually weaken through the night. 


The Lake Shore Flood Advisory will continue for areas near the lake 
as large battering waves in excess of 20 feet appear likely...and as 
the previous discussion mentioned...lake levels are about 2 feet 
higher than past years...which could make the impacts of these waves 
higher then similar wave events in the past couple of years. 


Due to the likelihood of these strong winds...we have issued a Wind 
Advisory for much of the eastern half of my County Warning Area. This 
includes areas basically along and east of a line from Harvard 
southward through Kankakee and Iroquois counties. The only exception 
to this Wind Advisory is for Lake County Indiana...as well as 
Porter...Jasper and Newton counties...where a Winter Weather 
Advisory is being issued in place of a Wind Advisory for the 
combination of these strong winds and also the increasing potential 
for some accumulating lake effect snow on Friday into Friday 
evening. 


Precipitation with the approaching cold front and upper level 
impulse will likely begin to enter far northern Illinois after 10 
PM this evening...and be in the form of rain showers. This initial 
round of showers should move southward across the area through the 
night...in close proximity the increasing frontogenesis in the 
vicinity of the cold frontal boundary. This should be a fairly 
progressive area of showers...with most areas across north central 
Illinois drying out by early Friday morning. 


The second stage of precipitation will be more of a true lake effect 
setup. A cold airmass featuring -7 degree c temperatures at 850 mb 
will move over the lake...which is currently reporting a 53f (11.7c) 
degree water temperature at the south buoy. Therefore...Delta t's 
should end up very favorable around 19 degrees c. In addition...Deep 
Lake induced instability is still expected...with equilibrium levels 
likely to reach or even exceed 16,000 feet above ground level. Therefore...the threat 
for thunder and lightning has not changed...with convective 
processes likely to be more than deep enough through the -10 to 
-20 layer to result in good charge separation. 


It looks as though this lake effect band could begin to set up 
across northwestern Indiana and perhaps portions of southeastern 
Cook County by late Friday morning. Hi res guidance suggests 
uncertainty on the exact areas that will get this lake effect 
banding. Some have hinted in a farther west band...which would 
impact more of the Chicago area. However...I think at this point 
areas in Northwest Indiana will be more favored...with the 
likelihood of a nearly due north boundary layer flow setting up over 
Lake Michigan. This would tend to favor better boundary layer 
convergence along the southern tip of Lake Michigan Friday 
afternoon...which suggests that Porter and lake Indiana will be more 
in line with the potential heavier precipitation. Due to the strong 
winds...it is also likely that this lake effect precipitation could be 
driven well inland across northwestern Indiana...possibly impacting 
much of Jasper and Porter counties as well. 


Uncertainty in precipitation type is still somewhat high...as 
some warmer air moving off the lake should make boundary layer 
temperatures marginal for snow to reach the surface. However...with 
the aforementioned convective instability and the good potential for 
some heavier precipitation rates...it is very much in the realm of 
possibilities that enhanced dynamic cooling could result in a cold 
enough boundary layer supportive of heavy snow. It appears that 
areas inland from the immediate Lake Shore would have the best 
potential for snow...though even areas along the lake could change 
over/mix with snow. Overall...with the potential for some heavier 
bands of snow with some accumulations possible (possibly a few 
inches in some areas) along with the very strong northerly 
winds...we have chosen to issue the Winter Weather Advisory for the 
4 northwestern Indiana counties. If...however...the transition to 
snow does not pan out as current thinking suggests...winds would be 
the main hazard on Friday...and the Winter Weather Advisory could 
then be replaced with a Wind Advisory. Therefore...in spite of the 
uncertainties on when change overs to snow will occur and how much 
snow will actually fall...we feel at this point...to error on the 
side of caution...as there is a potential for some very heavy snow 
in addition to the strong winds. 


The winds are expected to gradually veer more northeasterly Friday 
night...and this could allow some of the lake effect precipitation 
to get into northeastern Illinois for a brief period Friday evening. 
However...model guidance continues to suggest that inversion heights 
will crash in a hurry by late Friday evening as heights and 
temperatures begin to rise aloft. Therefore...any snow showers that 
get into northeastern Illinois would likely be light and come to an 
end late Friday night/early Sat morning. 


High temperatures area-wide look to remain in the lower 40s at best 
on Friday and Saturday 


Kjb 


&& 


Long term... 


High temperatures will moderate into early next week as the 
western Continental U.S. Upper ridge builds eastward over the region. Another 
cold front looks to take aim on the area around next 
Tuesday...which will result in our next chance of showers. 
Otherwise temperatures look to remain near normal during the later 
half of the week. 


Kjb 


&& 


Aviation... 


//Ord and mdw concerns...updated 06z... 


* intermittent rain showers overnight. 


* Few hour period of snow showers after daybreak. 


* Northwest winds shifting north after daybreak with gusts 
increasing to 35-40 knots. Not clear on frequency of 40 knots gusts. 


* Periodic MVFR ceilings overnight through the morning. 


* Lake effect snow showers could affect mdw early evening. 


Mdb 


//discussion...updated 06z... 


Numerous forecast concerns continue with low pressure over Lake 
Huron tracking southeast and very strong high pressure over the 
northern plains trailing it. Winds are beginning to turn northwest 
with a cold front entering northwest Illinois at 06z and moving 
southeast. Winds will increase in speed over the next several 
hours. A series of upper disturbances will cross the area through 
the morning with the first now bringing rain showers to the 
terminals. The next will arrive overnight bringing intermittent 
showers with a better defined wave crossing the area around/after 
daybreak bringing snow showers as much colder air arrives. Areas 
of northern Wisconsin are seeing IFR snow this hour but these 
heavier bursts are expected to track to the east of the terminals. 
Still cannot rule out a brief heavier burst of non-accumulating 
snow at Ord/mdw/gyy but will continue with minimal visibility 
restriction. Otherwise expect intermittent MVFR ceilings to develop 
with quite a bit of variability based on upstream conditions. 


Winds further increase behind this snow producing wave with gusts 
of 35-40 knots expected. It is unclear how frequent that 40 knots gusts 
will occur but am fairly confident that they will. Am thinking 
that there may be two separate windows where 40 knots will be most 
likely...one being middle/late morning behind the snow producing wave 
and the other being middle afternoon when skies are most likely to 
scatter. With overall confidence in 40 knots frequency on the low 
side will continue with previous duration for now but will attempt 
to refine with the next update if possible. 


The next issue will be lake effect precipitation. Gyy looks to be 
in line for lake effect rain/snow and possibly periods of all snow 
from late morning into the evening. Thunder is also possible as 
conditions become quite unstable over the Lake. May need to 
indicate sub 1sm visibility in moderate/heavy precipitation as details 
become more clear. Gyy will also likely see the strongest winds 
given their proximity to the lake and 45+ knots will be possible. 


Winds gradually ease early this evening and lake effect may begin 
to transition westward into the early overnight so mdw and 
possibly Ord could be in line for some snow showers but conditions 
will become less favorable with time into Saturday morning. Will 
continue with snow shower mention at mdw this evening but leave 
Ord dry for now. 


Mdb 




//Ord and mdw confidence...updated 06z... 


* high confidence in precipitation trends through the morning. 


* Medium confidence in some snow showers this morning...low 
confidence in duration/intensity. 


* High confidence in northwest winds turning north and in gusts 
reaching 35-37 knots...medium confidence that some 40 knots gusts will 
occur but low confidence in frequency and best timing. 


* Medium-high confidence in periodic MVFR ceilings overnight through 
the morning. 


* Low confidence in lake effect snow shower potential this 
evening. 


Mdb 


//outlook for Ord/mdw for 12z Saturday-12z Wednesday...updated 00z... 


* Saturday...dry/VFR. Northeast winds 10-15 knots. 
* Sunday...dry/VFR. South winds 10-15 knots. 
* Monday...slight chance of rain showers. Gusty southwest winds. 
* Tuesday...shra/MVFR likely. Southwest winds. 
* Wednesday...dry/VFR. Southwest winds. 


&& 


Marine... 
250 PM CDT 


A very active period over Lake Michigan beginning later tonight. The 
area will find itself in a favorable and anomalous synoptic weather 
pattern for strong northerly winds...and this will be further aided 
by the warm waters/extreme instability to produce regular higher end 
storm force gusts persisting into Friday. A strong cold front will 
move down the lake rapidly from around midnight through 5 am. 
Immediately behind this a very tight pressure gradient in sync with 
cold air advection will produce a ramp up in northerly wind speeds. 
The highest wind speeds of storm force to 50 and possibly even 55 knots 
are expected late tonight through middle Friday afternoon for the 
central and southern part of the lake...and after daybreak through 
the day on Friday for the nearshore areas of Illinois and Indiana. 
The wave maximum of over 20 footers is expected to develop over the 
central part of the lake early Friday morning and evolve southward 
reaching the Illinois and Indiana nearshore Friday afternoon and 
early evening. Waves will be very slow to subside through late 
Friday night and early Saturday. High pressure will move quickly 
over the lake Saturday night before southerly flow returns to the 
lake. 


Mtf 


&& 


Lot watches/warnings/advisories... 
Illinois...Wind Advisory...ilz014...7 am Friday to 10 PM Friday. 


Lakeshore Flood Advisory...ilz014...11 am Friday to 4 am 
Saturday. 


Wind Advisory...ilz005-ilz006-ilz012-ilz013-ilz020-ilz022...7 am 
Friday to 7 PM Friday. 


Wind Advisory...ilz023-ilz033...10 am Friday to 7 PM Friday. 


In...Lakeshore Flood Advisory...inz001-inz002...11 am Friday to 4 am 
Saturday. 


Winter Weather Advisory...inz001-inz002-inz010-inz011...10 am 
Friday to 10 PM Friday. 


Wind Advisory...inz019...10 am Friday to 7 PM Friday. 


Lm...Gale Warning...lmz080-lmz366-lmz565-lmz567-lmz669-lmz671-lmz673- 
lmz675-lmz741-lmz742-lmz743-lmz744-lmz745-lmz777-lmz779- 
lmz868-lmz870-lmz872-lmz874-lmz876-lmz878...7 PM Friday to 
4 am Saturday. 


Storm Warning...lmz080-lmz366-lmz565-lmz567-lmz669-lmz671-lmz673- 
lmz675-lmz777-lmz779-lmz868-lmz870-lmz872-lmz874-lmz876- 
lmz878 until 7 PM Friday. 


Gale Warning...lmz261-lmz362-lmz364-lmz563 until 10 PM Friday. 


Gale Warning...lmz740...4 am Friday to 4 am Saturday. 


Storm Warning...lmz741-lmz742-lmz743-lmz744-lmz745...4 am Friday 
to 7 PM Friday. 


&& 


$$ 


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